NBA Draft Day Stereotypes

Karl-Anthony Towns is excited about this column 

If you follow the NBA, you probably know that it’s a league that loves stereotypes. Fans, analysts, TV guys – they all love finding players that match certain labels, or criteria. This can happen in a lot of different ways: for instance, if a player’s level of performance is good enough, we start debating whether or not he is a “star”, a “franchise player”, an “All-Star”, and so on. We want to give this player a label, so just by identifying to what “group” he belongs, we could automatically know how good this guys is. This also happens not because of the player’s level of performance, but because of his skill set. If it’s a tall guy that shoots a lot from the outside, he is a “stretch big” – even if he is not actually hitting those shots, as Andrea Bargnani taught us. If it’s a point guard that passes well and has a high number of assists, we might start calling him a “pure point guard”. You get the idea.

The NBA Draft is not immune to this.  While everyone knows that every prospect is unique in itself, with a particular personality, trajectory and skill set, we still like to find stereotypes to better understand and explain something that is, most of the time, so chaotic and uncertain as the NBA Draft. 

So let’s take a look at some of the most common stereotypes you will usually find in the pre-draft process, and see how they are represented in this year’s class. Starting with the most important one…

The Franchise-Changing Superstar

Examples: LeBron James; Kevin Durant; Anthony Davis

As the name suggests, it’s that kind of player that is just too good from the very beginning, capable of single-handedly changing a franchise’s fortune. It’s usually such an obvious choice that whoever is lucky enough to get one with a top pick doesn’t even get praised for doing it – while a franchise stupid enough to pass up on one of them will be mocked until the end of time.

Of course, there are two types of Franchise-changing Superstars. The ones we know about BEFORE the draft, and the ones we just find out about latter. Everyone knew in 2003 what LeBron James was. Same for Anthony Davis in 2011. But Dwyane Wade? It was a minor shock when Miami grabbed him with the 5^th pick, and he became one of the greatest players of all time. No one knew beforehand. But we are talking of pre-draft process, so what matters most here are the players perceived as so before they actually have to play a single NBA minute. And yes, sometimes it’s as tricky as it sounds. Just ask Kevin Pritchard.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? No one

There is no such player in this year’s draft. Of course, there are a lot of players with a high upside, and many guys that could become great NBA players in time. This is not to say this is a bad pool of talent. It’s just that, by looking at it today, this draft does not possess a sure-thing franchise player to turn a franchise around by himself. It has a lot of impactful players that could be important pieces of a good team, or a contender, but not that one that every bad team dreams of, the one that can change things around by himself in no time and justify a tanking process. Those players are exceedingly rare, and it’s very common to find a draft without any.

The Sure-Thing

Examples: Carmelo Anthony; Blake Griffin; John Wall

They may or may not have the potential to be a franchise-changing superstar, but usually what’s most attractive about the players in that stereotype is that they are advanced players, with a very concrete skill set that leaves almost no margin for error that they can succeed in the NBA. They are usually safe, low-risk picks. Of course, the idea is not that they are just players with a very high chance of being NBA players – they are players with a very high chance of being VERY GOOD NBA players.  

The sure-things not necessarily can’t be franchise-changing players eventually, just that they are not perceived as being instantly as dominant as the stereotype above, but also have a lot of attractiveness as prospects because of that high floor, that “can’t-miss” idea that you might not end up with a star, but you are almost guaranteed a very good player.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Jahlil Okafor

You will have trouble finding a college freshmen more advanced and polished than Okafor, and that’s the main reason why he’s been the consensus #1 pick since before the season began. For a 19-year old, he is a mind-blowing combination of physical strength, agility, fantastic footwork, and a very advanced array of post moves. College kids have no shot at defending him in the post (he is averaging 18 points a game shooting an impossible 66% from the field), and if the opponents overcommit to double-teams, he is also a fantastic passer who sees the floor well, and can move the ball to find open teammates for easy shots. Even if it’s somewhat of an old-school kind of game, it’s so good and advanced that it’s very easy to look at Okafor and see him succeeding at it in the NBA. 

Scouts don’t like Okafor’s defense, and question his upside because of his lack of explosiveness and elite athleticism. And those are fair critics, even if many believe (including myself) his defensive flaws are fixable and he can develop into a decent defender in the NBA level. But whoever drafts Okafor knows exactly what he is getting, and that is a very advanced post scorer who commands double teams all times, and can anchor an offense. And that’s a very attractive proposition.

The High-Upside Pick

Examples: Dwight Howard; DeMarcus Cousins; Derrick Favors; Hasheem Thabeet

Top prospects who are highly valued not because they already have an advanced, clear skill set, or a very high floor. They are valued because they have a lot of potential, an extremely dangerous word that you will hear a lot in the pre-draft process. They are players that still have some (or a lot) of room to grow before they can become real contributors, and even more before they can reach this so called potential, but if they do, they have a chance to be great stars, impactful players, even a franchise-changing star someday.  

Because they still have so much room to grow and depends on their potential, high-upside picks usually carries a high risk with them. Maybe it’s because of a very raw skill set, because of immaturity or character concerns, or some combination of both. How much risk they present is a determining factor on how good they are as prospects, because some have a much lower floor than others (Dwight Howard had a much higher floor than Hasheem Thabeet, for example). But those types of prospects usually follow the same path: they are not as good or as advanced as other prospects today, but if they can reach their potential, they have the chance to be truly great. 

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Karl Anthony-Towns

Towns is Okafor’s opposite in terms of skill set, a rebounding and shot-blocking menace who’s also very raw in the offensive end. He has a very interesting game for a modern NBA big, someone who patrols the paint and protect the rim on defense, but can play in the perimeter on offense, unclogging the paint and opening up driving lanes. Towns has shown flashes of a nice perimeter game, with a nice jump shot and an outside-inside game, even if still raw. Players with this skill set are rare, and extremely valuable in today’s NBA.

While Towns is already a good rebounder and shot blocker in the NCAA, his offensive game is still a work in progress, with a lot of development ahead of him before it can truly contribute in a high level in the pros. But his floor is not very low because of his work on the other end, and although it’s lower than Okafor’s and he’s not nearly a sure think like Duke’s center, Towns’ upside is higher thanks to his athleticism, (potential) all-aroundness and a more NBA-friendly skill set - and because of it, the UK product is expected to contend for the #1 spot come draft day.

International Man of Mystery

Examples: Jonas Valanciunas, Andre Bargnani, Dante Exum and half of the 2014 Draft

International prospects who haven’t played in the US, so they remain a relative mystery for the general public until the end. It’s very tough to get an accurate reading on those players for many reason: there is much less video and data available on those guys (or at least it’s much harden to find), it’s tougher to watch the games… and also, frequently, because we have young European players declaring to the draft who are not developed enough to play major minutes on a good team in Europe for us to get a better reading on them. Some might be playing well on a small team in a small league (think Dario Saric), some may be playing limited minutes with huge per-minute numbers against opposing benches (Nurkic), some might be playing against much inferior competition (Exum), and some have a very difficult time getting on court for elite teams (Mario Hezonja – we’ll get to him). All those factors make it very difficult for people to know exactly what to expect of them – we know they are there, we know how they play, we know they are good… but we don’t know how good they really are.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Kristap Porzingis and Mario Hezonja

Porzingis and Hezonja are the only top prospects among this class of international players who are expected to declare for the 2015 Draft.

Porzingis is putting up nice per-36 numbers (17-8, 1.7 blocks) for Sevilla, in Spain, but is playing only 22 minutes a game. Porzingis is – or at least that’s what people who have seen him play a lot more than I did like to say – a nice combination of an athletic big man who can run the floor and protect the rim, but also has a nice shooting stroke on the offensive end, so that he can develop into a solid two-way big capable of stretching the floor – a highly valued piece in today’s NBA. The Latvian big still needs to add more strength and, as usual, is unclear how polished he already is, but I’ve seen a fair share of scouts claiming that, if Porzingis played in the NCAA, he’d be in the conversation for the #1 overall pick. Whether or not that is accurate remains to be seen.

Hezonja, on the other end, is an athletic wing that is having a tough time finding minutes off the bench on one of the best teams in Europe, Barcelona, so it’s the case where you scout what he has in terms of tools and skill, but it’s very tough to analyze his production. Hezonja is a very athletic player and skilled shooter (42% in 3PTs), who has great potential as a slasher because of that athleticism, and even as a defender, because of his long frame and quickness. But reports still paint him as raw, someone who would rather play with the ball on his hands than off the ball (as he probably will have to do more in the NBA), still inconsistent both in play and effort on both sides of the ball. And the bottom line is… we don’t really know. We know he has great potential, he is a great athlete and a good shooter… but we don’t know what he is right now. Of course, he will still probably be a Top12 pick based on upside alone.

The Fast Riser

Example: Joel Embiid; Victor Oladipo

It’s that player that, coming into the season, we all know is good… only he starts playing well, then keeps playing well, then some point of the season starts playing out of his freaking mind, and we are all forced to move him up the draft boards way higher than anyone anticipated. There is always one or two per season, but some are not relevant enough (like, jumping from the second round or the draft bubble to the late 1^st round), while others grow into one of the top prospects in the draft. And the latter is when the said prospect gets really relevant from a stereotypes standpoint, and becomes a national storyline that you will see thrown around a lot.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? D’Angelo Russell

Russell’s stock received a boost because this Draft is extremely rich in big men and swingmen, yet there are two things it sorely lacks: good guards, and outside shooting. So that scarcity alone would make Russell – a combo guard who’s a fantastic shooter – a valuable commodity.

But Russell also rises because of his fantastic play this season, leading a weak Ohio State squad while averaging 19-6-5 and shooting 42.4% from deep. Originally a shooting guard, Russell is a great creator and passer, and has handled the ball a lot for the Buckeyes – so much that many NBA teams started to see Russell as a point guard in the next level. Whether he is a point guard in the pros or not, he is still a very good guard capable of creating offense, running the point, and shooting the hell out of the ball. And he started the year playing great… and kept playing great, raising his game and looking genuinely unstoppable at times, to the point where he is already receiving genuine consideration as a Top3 pick, even as the #1 pick in some circles. He probably won’t get it, but with so many teams in the top of the draft (well, projected to be there) needing some shooting, and the scarcity of the PG position in this class, there is a genuine possibility he is the second or third player off the board come draft time. 

The Weird Path to the Draft

Examples: Brandon Jennings; PJ Hairston;

With the NBA sticking with it’s one-year eligibility rule and the one-and-done mentality that became predominant in the NCAA, the common path to the draft for a top prospect is for him to play one year in college before declaring to the NBA Draft. However, as the NCAA keeps creating difficulties with eligibility rules and other issues, some players recently started becoming creative in how to spend this year before declaring to the Draft. Brandon Jennings, claiming he wanted to get paid (and who could blame him?), played one year in Italy. PJ Hairston had off-court issues, became unable to play for North Carolina, and spent his last season in the D-League. New options open up every year. 

The problem this creates is the same as with international prospects. These guys may not be an unknown as big as European players, because most of them have played at some point in the US (usually high school) and were highly touted recruits. But it’s still hard to evaluate that final year when they are stuck playing against inferior competition and in inferior leagues than it’s peers, with much less media coverage and easy access to data, creating some uncertainty.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Emmanuel Mudiay

A highly regarded recruit that committed to Larry Brown’s SMU, Mudiay went to play in China when the NCAA started to create some eligibility issues that could have kept him off the floor for most of the season. Mudiay signed with the Guangdong Tigers, and played a few games before a leg injury sidelined him for a long time, with some claiming it was because the player’s camp didn’t want him to play more. Eventually, he returned to court when the Tigers were facing elimination in the playoffs, with a 0-2 disadvantage in a 5-game series (Guangdong won the game, and the Congolese prospect scored 22 points). He is averaging 18 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists while shooting 50% from the floor. 

Then again, this is the same Chinese League where Stephon Marbury, Michael Beasley and Andray Blatche are stars, so we have to take all of this with a grain (or two, or ten) of salt. Still, Mudiay played enough to show off his skills (extremely physical and athletic, good feel for the point guard position, deadly attacking the basket off the pick and roll) to keep himself high on NBA team’s radars. Has drawn a lot of comparisons to a young Derrick Rose.

The Boom-or-Bust

Examples: Andre Drummond; Royce White; Jared Sullinger

My favorite stereotype, not as common as others, but one that generates a lot of debate. Every once in a while, we see someone that fits the mold – a very talented player, a lot of potential, that would be a very high pick based on that alone, the kind of guy everyone drools when they think about how good they will be if everything breaks right… only they have something that terrifies everyone to waste a high pick on him in fear that he will be a major bust. It’s more than just having potential and a low floor, it’s about a player that has a chance to be great and everyone dreams of what they can become if everything falls into place, only with so many red flags (or maybe just one, huge red flag) no one wants to touch him. The risk is just too great.

Andre Drummond was a physical freak with a sky-high celling who had maturity issues in UConn, and was horrible in his freshman season, putting enough fear into many teams until he dropped all the way to Detroit at #9 (and it worked worderfully). White was a very talented power forward who had some serious psychological issues, and fell to #16 (and it was a disaster). Sullinger was a likely Top5 pick until health issues with his back made him fall all the way to the Celtics at #21 (to be continued). All were great players with a couple of “ifs”: if he could stay healthy… if his poor college performances didn’t mean nothing… if he could get his head straight… and so on. 

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Myles Turner

Turner is the analytical darling of the 2015 draft, a player that has a chance to be a major force in the NBA. A former guard who grew too much, Turner combines a huge, athletic body with a nice perimeter game that makes him a potential true stretch big in the NBA. Turner is one of the Draft’s best defenders, a terrifying shot blocker  (5 per 40 minutes) and someone who grabs 24% of the opponents misses while on the floor. His 3PT shot has yet to come together, but Miles shows a good form and his jumper should develop well in the NBA with his outside game – and as I’ve said before a couple times, NBA players capable of stretching the floor AND protecting the rim are exceedingly rare and valuable. Turner has the tools and the skill set to be a monster in the NBA.

And yet, no one seems very eager to draft him with a high pick. Despite everything you have to gain by drafting him, there are also some serious red flags. He’s still very raw and is still getting adapted at playing in the paint with his “new” height, but that’s not the main issue. Turner is averaging 18-13-5 (blocks) per 40 minutes in Texas, but he’s also being very inconsistent, putting up huge numbers against inferior competition but struggling mightily against better opponents, creating a lot of doubts regarding whether or not he can produce again the NBA’s bigger frontlines. Also, his movements around the court are not fluid; there is a stiffness and a weird posture on how he runs. This is, obviously, a strange, subjective observation, but there are many scouts and specialists who fear this might lead to back and/or knee stress issues. The reward Turner could bring to a team is enormous, but he also carries great risk and many reasons for a team to be afraid of him. He will probably still be a Top12 pick if he declares, but if not for the struggles in College and the injury worries, he could go even higher.

The Senior

Examples: Josh Howard; Darren Collison; Roy Hibbert; Doug McDermott

The best prospects in the NBA draft are usually freshmen or sophomores, young players with a lot of potential and development ahead of them. And while you can find some high-upside seniors, and even some stars (like Damien Lillard or Brandon Roy), they are very rare, and most of the time, the focus is on the younger talents. Yet, many times, there are good seniors to be found in the Draft, older players with less potential, but prospects with value because they are advanced enough to come in and contribute right away – specially if they have a specific skill that would translate well to the NBA. They usually won’t develop into a star or even an All-Star, but could be a good contributor in the right team.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Frank Kaminsky, Jerian Grant

There is always talent to be found in older players if you’re looking for immediate contributors, and this Draft is no exception. Grant is a big and aggressive point guard who can create out of the pick and roll, both for himself and for others, and does a little bit of everything when asked, who has also shown that he can carry a college offense on his back. Not a star, sure, but can be a valuable contributor off the bench for a team (think Reggie Jackson).

But Kaminsky is by far the most intriguing senior of 2015, a serious candidate for NCAA Player of the Year who is the best player on a Top5 team. Kaminsky is a very polished offensive player, someone who can stretch the floor on offense (42 3PT%)but also create for himself, and a very savvy passer who makes his teammates better - skills NBA teams love in a 7-footer. He will probably never be a star player, but he is a legit big who can battle inside, stretch the floor on offense, play some defense, and give you very solid minutes every night.  Not the kind of guy you want with a Top10 pick, but definitely someone who can contribute right away in the NBA, with a very valuable skill set.

The Talented, Highly Regarded Recruit Whose Stock Fell Too Much

Examples: Austin Rivers; Shabazz Muhammad; Jrue Holiday

Because future NBA players are scouted since they are still playing on High Schools and dunking on overmatched white guys, we already have opinions and analysis on them even before they play a single minute of college ball.  We also have Mock Drafts and all kinds of professional projections at the same point. And so it’s not weird that, every year, there are those who fail to live up to expectations - projected high draft picks that end up disappointing for some reason and see their draft stock plummet. Sometimes, the teams brave enough to bet on the talent that everyone saw there before are rewarded; sometimes, they soon discover the reason they fell so much in the first place. Regardless, it’s one of my favorite NBA Draft traditions.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Cliff Alexander

Alexander was ESPN’s #3 college recruit in the 2015 class, and Chad Ford had him as the 3rd pick is his first Mock Draft of the season. The Kansas PF had great athleticism, a NBA-ready body, and was supposed to dominate the area around the rim with dunks and blocks, anchoring Kansas’s frontcourt. 

Only it didn’t happen. Alexander had a tough time grabbing a starting spot at Kansas (didn’t last)… then had a tough time trying to get minutes off the bench (still plays 17 mpg only)… and still had trouble dominating when he did play. His per-40 numbers are solid (16-12, 3 blocks) and Kansas is a better team with him, but his performance is still below what was expected, and Bill Self still won’t give him solid minutes. To worsen things, Alexander lost a game last week with some eligibility issues. He has just looked underwhelming, with not enough polish and a very raw offensive game that isn’t helped by him being undersized for the position and not getting enough playing time– enough to make the big man fall into the late 1^st round, usually found in Mock Drafts around the 20s.

It’s uncertain whether or not the Kansas product will enter the draft or return to his sophomore season (he would benefit from it, but with eligibility issues hanging….), but if he does, he will probably be drafted in the late 1^st round because of his potential and raw talent – way latter than everyone thought five months ago. He might be a steal there, as a high-energy, high-motor big off the bench that can defends and rebounds… or he might be another reminder that we sometimes are stupid trying to read too much into players who never played one minute of competitive basketball.

The Giannis

Examples: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Ever since the Bucks struck gold with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Draft, there has been a lot of talk about who could be “the next Giannis” – you know, a very raw but talented physical freak of nature (in the best of senses) with almost unlimited potential. Of course, this sounds weird since Giannis is such a one-of-a-kind player, but you will hear a lot about this stereotype in the years to come, especially as the Greek Freak continues to develop into a very good player. The Giannis comp already popped up last season when the Raptors used a 1^st round pick in Bruno Caboclo, also a wingspan freak with great athletic skills. Everyone wants his own Giannis.

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? Malik Pope

Let’s see… young very raw? Check. Not a lot of on-game experience? Check (lost two high-school years with a broken leg). Tall, long, thin with ridiculously long limbs? Check (Pope measures at 6-10, 205 lb). Very talented, with a skill set that almost makes no sense with his body? Check. A lot of potential? Well, check! Looks like we have our Giannis Candidate of 2015! If I were a betting man, I’d wager on Pope going in the first round if he declares. And if he does, he has Giannis Antetokounmpo to thank. 

The Horrible Lottery Pick That Gets Mocked for Years

Examples: Jan Vesely; Wesley Johnson; Jonny Flynn; Hasheem Thabeet; Marvin Williams

Who is it in the 2015 Draft? To be defined…

Man, I miss David Kahn in the league, for comedy’s sake.

(Inspired in a 2009 post from the great Bola Presa. And thank you Blogger.com for screwing up the design of the post.)